As the dust settles on the U.S. election, prediction markets have captured attention far beyond traditional wagering circles. Polymarket handled over $3.6 billion on wagers on the election outcome, accurately predicting not only the President but also the results in every swing state. Historically, many exchanges have struggled to sustain activity beyond major headline events, limiting their capacity to provide consistently actionable insights. Today, a new wave of platforms are looking to overcome these challenges.
In the world of wagering, few names carry as much weight as Flutter Entertainment. Before Flutter, there was Paddy Power. Under Patrick Kennedy, Paddy Power became a major player in global wagering. A pivotal move was the acquisition of Australian operator Sportsbet, which set the blueprint for future international success. In 2016, Breon Corcoran led a £5.7B merger, creating Paddy Power Betfair, which laid the foundation for Flutter’s future dominance. In 2018, Peter Jackson took over as CEO, with the 2019 rebrand to Flutter Entertainment signalling ambitions far beyond a name change. Today, the ‘Flutter Edge’ - a combination of scale, product, technology, and expertise - continues to position the company as the dominant force in global wagering.
Data hasn't always been as central to sport and wagering as it is today. Michael Lewis’s book Moneyball, popularised data’s role in sport. As the internet grew, companies like Sportradar and Genius Sports emerged. Today, data companies drive everything from broadcasts and advertising to fantasy sports, wagering and league operations. AI and machine learning continue to unlock new opportunities for fan engagement, especially in the wagering industry. Racing & Sports, with whom Waterhouse VC has entered into a strategic partnership, is now poised to lead the transformation of racing.
Becoming the dominant force early in an industry can lead to significant competitive advantages, brand recognition, and customer loyalty. In the UK, Ladbrokes and William Hill emerged as the market leaders amongst a wide field of operators. By 1999, at the dawn of the internet era, there were 8,500 UK betting shops. The internet changed the way people ‘shop’ for bets, leading to a steady decline in high street betting shops. In their place, technology-lead operators like Flutter and Bet365 emerged.
The fund started on 19 August 2019 and is approaching its 5 year anniversary. The fund returned +53.3% for the 2024 financial year and generated a positive return in 8 of the last 12 months. Two businesses in particular, Project Tennis and Saintly, contributed significantly to the fund's performance. As the fund matures, deal flow has accelerated, particularly in professional betting syndicates.
XLMedia is an online gambling affiliate marketing company, acting as an outsourced customer acquisition channel. Similar to Tripadvisor’s offering to travel operators, XLMedia’s primary purpose is to attract and engage a fragmented customer base of punters and connect them to the products and services of gambling operators.
The U.S. market is maturing and the availability of legal online sports betting is increasing state-by-state. It will be some time before we see the level of consolidation of mature betting markets like the U.K. and Australia. We envision a U.S. online betting market with a handful of firms earning the lion’s share of revenues and profits, and are confident that Flutter will be one of the handful.
Budgets for flagship video games regularly exceed US$100m and this need for scale is a big advantage for the incumbent game publishers. The best content is rewarded with longer game play, which leads to more in-game spending over time. Even with gaming itself getting more of the consumer’s time, the market share of the top titles continues to grow.
